Israel Adesanya vs Shara Magomedov prediction
Israel Adesanya vs Shara Magomedov is the main event of UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Magomedov on 5 December 2026 in Riyadh. Our model picks Israel Adesanya with a 59% chance of winning; the likeliest ending is Adesanya by KO/TKO. The bookmakers give Israel Adesanya 57% and Shara Magomedov 43%. Predictions are for fun, not betting advice.
Our model
Israel Adesanya 59% · Shara Magomedov 41%
Bookmakers
Israel Adesanya 57% · Shara Magomedov 43%
Likeliest endings
- Adesanya by KO/TKO · 29%
- Adesanya by decision · 24%
- Magomedov by KO/TKO · 20%
Tale of the tape
| Israel Adesanya | Shara Magomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-6-0 | 17-1-0 |
| Elo rating | 1697 | 1663 |
| Rank | #9 Middleweight | #15 Middleweight |
| Division | Middleweight | Middleweight |